Why Poker Is A Fools Errand - And Still Gambling

January 9 - I just took down a Sit `N Go tournament on Full Tilt Poker. Congratulations to me. I`d like to explain that treating online poker as though it is a science based on mathematic principles is a fool`s errand for most of us. Unless you have the patience to play 50,000 hands a month, and the discipline to follow the odds every time, which none of us do, then you`re going to have to face the facts: poker is gambling.

Gambling means that you make a bet facing uncertainty, sometimes when you are pretty sure that you`re way behind. You do it because if you get lucky it will earn you enough cash (winning the tournament, winning a cash pot) to justify the risk.

There was a full table and very little action to this point. Blinds were 15/30, first level. A player on my right opened for 120. I had Ah 8d and made the call. That was a strategic mistake, but not an awful one. A small gamble if you will. Everyone else folded, so that was good.

The flop came Th Kh 8c. So I had bottom pair with a great kicker, and two hearts on the board. He bet out 270, which was a by the book good bet if you have a King with a good kicker. That`s what I had him on. I called hoping to hit either an 8, an A (didn`t think he had KA but if he did then that would be unlucky and I`d be out). The turn was a 3h.

If we now go to our poker odds calculator and punch in my hand and his hand - I`ll end the suspense and tell you he had....JK off (my screen name on some sites is JKoffthenuts, which I still think is funny, particularly if you say it like it`s a question), then you`ll see that I was 31.82% to win the hand.

I`m way behind as a 2:1 dog. I need an 8 an A or a heart for the nuts. He bet out 650 which was another correct bet. I raised all-in to 1250. This raise is smart (in the context of my overall stupid decision to gamble all my chips during Level 1) in my view because there is a very small chance that he will lay down the hand and save his last 600 chips.

If I was him I`d think that the opponent acknowledges he has a K and a good kicker, and that all in reraise on the turn says he can beat that hand. But a lot of weak players who play by the book think that there top pair is good enough all the way and cannot get away from it. Of course he ended up making a "good call" by getting all his money in with the best hand. Then he lost. That`s really poker.

There is only one scientific winner in poker and that`s the room. The cards don`t matter to them, unless it`s Ultimate Bet or Absolute Poker, all they need is to collect the rake. No suck outs can touch them.

I hit a heart on the river. The other guy finished 9th. I stayed chip leader throughout and won the SNG. Poker is a fool`s errand. If you kid yourself into believing that it is a job where you only have to put in the hours to earn a certain amount of money ("I earn 1.36 BB x hour" - that short of bullshit) you`re deluded and unless you get incredibly lucky (winning a seven-figure event for example) you cannot sustain this "professional poker player" dream for long.

Read our Full Tilt Poker review and come look for me at the tables. I play as Setof6s.



Posted by: Marc at 23:48
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