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Is Poker A Game Of Skill Or A Game Of Chance
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Author: Marc Weinberg
August 24 - At this year's WSOP during one of my many taxi rides to the Rio a cabdriver asked me a very salient question: "Is poker skill or luck?" And since he knew my answer would be "a bit of both" he quickly added, and "how would I break down the percentage of each?"
He asked me the question in the context of the Main Event where over 8700 hopefuls, including yours truly, would battle for a first prize of $12 million. I replied that the ratio between luck and skill was not static in a poker tournament of this magnitude, but rather it changed considerably depending on the stage of the event.
At the outset of the tournament you could give me 500/1 on Daniel Negreanu winning the event and I'd say it was a mug's bet that only a fool would take. As a bookmaker I would be happy to lay 500/1 on any player in that field. Yes, Phil Ivey is far more talented than the guys who qualified on Party Poker but in those early stages luck plays a huge factor and levels the playing field.
The chances of a specific top pro winning the WSOP Main Event are slim indeed because I would say that until 8700 play down to 870 the luck factor is at least 75% and the skill factor is a mere 25% at most. In fact, one could argue that the tournament only starts to resemble a contest of skill once the field is down to the final 200.
If you said to me that there were 200 players left and that Phil Ivey or Daniel Negreanu were still in the tournament and that they had the same size chip stack as everyone else, then they would be worth a small bet at a price of 50/1. Yes, there's still that much luck involved, but now one would expect the pros to make a strong showing, as they do in most major tournaments that attract starting fields between 100-500 players.
In the latter stages of the WSOP Main Event the game of poker starts to become a contest of skill as well as luck. If you are fortunate enough to make it to the final 100 players it could even be as much as 50/50, and once you're down to the final few tables it is more a question of skill than luck.
If you sat down at the biggest cash games in the world facing players like Ivey, Negreanu, Brunson, and Harman you would have almost no chance of getting up from that table ahead. If you played a top pro heads up until one of you went broke and you both started with a deep stack relative to the blinds then there would be only a small percentage of luck involved. You could still win a session, but over time the less skillful player would ultimately lose.
There is a court case currently being heard in North Carolina, which bans poker because it considers it a game of chance. Roulette is a game of chance, as is heads and tails. If the court finds that poker is indeed a game of skill then that law could be overturned.
Poker is a game of skill and chance, which can lead to a complicated explanation. In the short-term poker can look a lot like a game of chance, but in the long-term over the course of millions of hands it is a game of skill. Here's a simple analogy: We're going to play heads and tails, but I will use a coin that is slightly loaded. Instead of landing on each side the same number of times this coin will land on one side 60% of the time. If you constantly bet on the other side you will enjoy a lot of victorious moments, and you might even be up overall at one time, but eventually you will lose.
A game of chance must by definition be unpredictable, the final outcome could go either way. It appears that poker cannot be defined in this way - poker is not a game of skill in the same way that chess is a game of skill; the best player will not always win at poker, but there is a huge skill component that can impact the outcome of the game.
If you gave me $100,000 and you gave Phil Ivey the same amount and we played at the same roulette table for one hour I would feel confident that 50% of the time I would end up with more money than Ivey. The game is purely one of chance, and who is to say which one of us would end up with a bigger pile of chips (or any chips for that matter)? But does anyone really feel that they could make the same statement at a poker table?
Only a fool would say that poker isn't gambling, but it would take a much bigger fool to sit down opposite Phil Ivey and put that $100,000 on the line.
Related Poker Articles And News Items:
> USA Online Gambling Policy Vs WTO Treaties
> Americans Will Be Banned From Playing At Party Poker
> World Championship Of Online Poker Off To A Flyer
> WPT Lawsuit Causing A Rift In The Poker World
> No-Limit Holdem Cash Game Tactics
> 2006 WSOP Player Of The Year Joins Full Tilt
> 2006 WSOP Final Table Is Set To Go
> Jeff Madsen Takes Over The 2006 WSOP
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