|
|
|
|
 |
|
Online Poker Tournament Puzzler - Play Along!
|
Author: Marc Weinberg
 March 30 - Earlier today I was duking it out on the bubble in a stressful SNG online poker tournament at Poker Stars. I had to make a crucial decision and went against my normal play. The end result was positive, but did I make the right decision? Here's the puzzle:
THE SETTING
Please note that I am the player 'masterbets'. I was in the big blind and the guy under the gun was the short stack. Note also the hefty blinds + antes.
PokerStars Game #9166343165: Tournament #46577681, $210+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/03/30 - 15:46:42 (ET)
Table '46577681 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 5: RedCowboy (7465 in chips)
Seat 7: Cindy Lomax (2635 in chips)
Seat 8: masterbets (2450 in chips)
Seat 9: Boku87 (950 in chips)
RedCowboy: posts the ante 25
Cindy Lomax: posts the ante 25
masterbets: posts the ante 25
Boku87: posts the ante 25
Cindy Lomax: posts small blind 200
masterbets: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to masterbets [9d 6d]
Boku87: raises 525 to 925 and is all-in
RedCowboy: folds
Cindy Lomax: folds
And here comes the puzzle - should I call this raise, which could of course be any two cards, or should I fold my piss-poor hand?
If I fold I have 2000 chips left, still enough to do damage. Boku87 will be healthier with 1625 chips but second only has 2650 chips, so we're all still in it.
If I call and lose I am down to 1475 chips, Boku87 leaps up to 2175 chips and I am definitely trailing the rest.
If I call and win I am risking 525 chips to win 1650 chips, so a 3 to 1 return (roughly) on my money. Let's look at the odds because I know I am a dog.
My natural style of play here is to fold the hand because it is such a poor hand. I play SNGs situationally rather than technically at certain inflection points of the tourney, and the bubble is a big inflection point. I know that the odds would probably justify a call, but folding keeps me poised to strike.
Imagine Boku woke up with a monster, say AA with neither Ace a diamond. I am 20% to win that hand, so no pot odds there. It could be even worse if my 9 is not live. Let's say he has 99. Then my odds are 13.6%.
But I am confident that he doesn't have a huge hand. In fact I put him on Ax or maybe Kx because there are a wide range of holdings that would justify his all-in push - that includes complete garbage, much like my hand.
In the end I decided to call. A friend of mine, a poker pro who is very aggressive but also very successful considered this spot an automatic call for me. He couldn't believe that I was tempted to fold, but I really was. Not because of the maths as much as the context. But maybe it should still be about the maths...
masterbets: calls 525
We flip over the cards at this point and I breathe a sigh of relief to see that he holds Ac5c. The odds now say I am 42.8% to win so with X-ray vision it is an obvious call.
*** FLOP *** [9h Jd 3h]
*** TURN *** [9h Jd 3h] [9s]
*** RIVER *** [9h Jd 3h 9s] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
masterbets: shows [9d 6d] (three of a kind, Nines)
Boku87: shows [Ac 5c] (a pair of Nines)
masterbets collected 2150 from pot
That was the turning point of the tournament for me. Once I was in the money I was able to dominate the other two and win it all. But what would you have done in my big blind shoes?
Email me at webmaster@online-poker-insider.com, I'd genuinely like to hear some other opinions on this one.
Related Poker Articles And News Items:
> Full Tilt Poker Results Defy Luck As DuckU Wins Again
> The Online Poker Generation Takes Over
> Rare Online Poker Tournament Achievement
> Pocket Fives Are The Devil
> Online Poker Strategy - The Rules For Winning
> Online Poker Strategy - Pitfalls To Avoid
> Play Winning Poker - Ten Rules To Follow
> Online Poker Tournament Tops $2 Million Prize Pool
|
|
 |
| |
|
|
|
Hot Poker Promotions
|
Online Poker Rooms Guide
|
|
|
|
Join Our Newsletter
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
