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The True Odds Of Cracking Pocket Aces
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Author: Marc Weinberg
The concepts I want to discuss today fall under the heading of advanced poker strategy, and more importantly they deal with maximizing poker profit. That is what we're all after when we look at the big picture - instead of wishing for pocket Aces every time the cards fly through the air, you should wish for a hand that can crack pocket Aces.
Basic Hand Odds
Most players know the chances of winning against an opponent who holds pocket Aces - basically he's a big favorite and you're a big dog. If you have a pocket pair of any size you're dominated. If you have suited connectors or gapped suited connectors (say 9s Js) then your odds improve but you're still no better than roughly a 22% favorite to win. Ideally you want those suited connectors to be in a suit that isn't counterfeited by one of your opponent's Aces, but you're in a lot of trouble regardless.
Making Money In Poker
The issue in poker, however, is how to make the most profit or endure the smallet possible loss for every given situation. There are many times when the guy who has Aces puts himself in a position to sustain a huge loss, and these guys are always the ones who count themselves cursed after the fact. And here's the beauty of poker - you can become the player who cracks Aces, but you have to know what you're doing.
Let's say you could see your opponent's cards and you knew he held Aces. The chances are he will raise between 3x and 6x the size of the big blind in a no-limit game, or he will put in a single bet in a limit game. As someone who holds AA pre-flop you don't want to scare everyone off, nor do you want to slowplay the hand to allow a lot of drawing hands to enter the pot. So he raises, and if you follow all the standard mathematical advice handed down by poker experts you fold your 8d9d or your pocket 4s, and wait for the next hand.
I think this is the wrong attitude, especially if the pre-flop bet is affordable. Call in limit without fail, and call in no-limit or pot-limit if you have the chips to do so. Remember that at this stage all you are risking is a bet 3 to 6 times the size of the big blind. If you play a tight, correct poker game, you will only call with premium hands like AK or KK and those hands cost you a FORTUNE against AA.
The Theory Explained
The way you make money with AA is when you are lucky enough to find an opponent with a premium hand. If you don't find that you need to find a very weak player - the kind who will call you pre-flop with KQ or AJ, flop top pair with a good kicker and chase your Aces all the way. Note that I didn't mention those middling hands at all in terms of cracking Aces. You crack Aces with small or medium pairs, and with medium-sized suited connectors. You do not crack Aces with AQ or KT.
The way you make money against AA is very simple. You call pre-flop, and if the flop hits your hand you have a huge payday. This payday is so big that it more than makes up for the fact that it only comes 1 out of every 4.5 hands. This is the key part of the article, so it's best for you to re-read it and digest the theory. When you crack a big hand with your little hand, the payoffs can be so large, and are always large enough in no-limit particularly, to warrant seeing the flop.
The way you lose money against AA if you follow this theory is that you lose a little by calling pre-flop, and then you fold if the flop does not hit your hand exactly on the money. Let's say you take 78 suited up against AA. Here are 4 flops, all typical:
J - T - 2 (rainbow)
7- 7 - Q
3 - 5 - 9 (two cards of your suit)
A - 7 - 2 (rainbow)
In these examples you have easy decisions in 3 of the hands. In the first hand, you fold and lose no more chips. You have an inside straight draw, but it isn't even to the best straight draw, and you have no flush opportunity. You have put your opponent on a big pair, and he has put in a huge bet (or will) on this round to protect that pair. Get out.
In the second hand you are going to take all your opponent's chips if it is no-limit. If he has 3000 chips he will give them all to you. If he has 20000 chips he will give them all to you. It's the reason why you play no-limit, and why you're better than other players. If you know he has Aces make him put all his chips in the pot straight away. There are very few players in the world who will lay down AA with this flop facing an all-in bet.
In the fourth hand again you lay it down right away, because you're there for the straight, flush, or lucky set, not for a miracle.
In the third hand you should take another card, and hope to catch it on the turn. You have a lot of outs, because there is a straight possibility and a good flush draw as well. The problem here is that if the third suited card hits the AA might slow down, so you could force the issue and gamble for all your chips right now (you are 50/50 to win, and will get a call), or wait for one more card. You could fold as well if you are in a tournament or losing big in a cash game and don't want to risk your chips for whatever reason.
The Point Of The Article
Everyone who plays poker thinks that having AA puts you in control. And it does up to a point. But if you play against AA with a small pair, for instance, and you know what you are doing, you could end up with all the control. You wait for the flop, and if you don't hit a set you fold. If you do hit a set, you are about to strike gold. As long as you have a strategy, and acknowledge that your opponent has a big hand, you can make him pay.
When you have AA it can often be tricky to get the appropriate pay-off. You still need the good fortune of finding someone else with a very strong starting hand. Anyone can win a lot when they have AA and find a poor bastard holding AK. But it takes a good player to make money against AA holding 79. The truth of the matter is it can be done, and best of all you will look like a complete fool to the rest of the table, thus ensuring that they will keep paying you off for the rest of the session!
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